Post by account_disabled on Feb 19, 2024 23:57:00 GMT -5
The change came from the big revisions announced in early September for the period to , when the ONS added almost per cent to the size of the UK economy. There were minor changes for 2022 and the first two quarters of . Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “We know the British economy recovered from the pandemic faster than anyone thought and the data published today once again proves the doubters wrong.” "The best way to continue this growth is to follow our plan to cut inflation in half this year," he added. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, will have to take ONS reviews into account as it prepares the forecasts that will accompany Hunt's Autumn Statement on November. However, economists noted that the UK's performance was still quite poor compared to other leading economies.
Ruth Gregory, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the data “does not change the general picture that the economy has lagged behind all other G7 countries, apart from Germany Job Function Email Database and France, since the pandemic. And that’s before the full impact of higher interest rates is felt.” He predicted that higher interest rates (now at percent) would trigger a mild recession that would imply a 0.5 percent drop in GDP in the coming quarters. Samuel Tombs, an economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "It may take some time for a stable picture to emerge, given that statistical authorities in other countries are also reviewing their data." GDP is now estimated to have increased by 4.3 percent in 2022, up from previous estimates of percent.
Growth between the first and second quarters of 2023 was not revised at 0.2 per cent, but the ONS revised output expansion in the first quarter upwards toper cent from per cent, as seen previously estimated. Friday's data also showed household spending grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter of which some economists suggested was a sign that the cost of living crisis is coming to an end. Household disposable income rose 1.2 percent in the three months to June, supported by a recovery in real wages and the improvement in the value of benefits to take into account last year's high inflation rate. That helped boost the average percentage of disposable income saved by households to 9.1 percent in the second quarter, up from percent in the previous three months.
Ruth Gregory, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the data “does not change the general picture that the economy has lagged behind all other G7 countries, apart from Germany Job Function Email Database and France, since the pandemic. And that’s before the full impact of higher interest rates is felt.” He predicted that higher interest rates (now at percent) would trigger a mild recession that would imply a 0.5 percent drop in GDP in the coming quarters. Samuel Tombs, an economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "It may take some time for a stable picture to emerge, given that statistical authorities in other countries are also reviewing their data." GDP is now estimated to have increased by 4.3 percent in 2022, up from previous estimates of percent.
Growth between the first and second quarters of 2023 was not revised at 0.2 per cent, but the ONS revised output expansion in the first quarter upwards toper cent from per cent, as seen previously estimated. Friday's data also showed household spending grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter of which some economists suggested was a sign that the cost of living crisis is coming to an end. Household disposable income rose 1.2 percent in the three months to June, supported by a recovery in real wages and the improvement in the value of benefits to take into account last year's high inflation rate. That helped boost the average percentage of disposable income saved by households to 9.1 percent in the second quarter, up from percent in the previous three months.